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USDINR Turnaround amid increased tension at border with china

Hello Friends, 

I am Manish over here from forexblues.com - save money earn money.

I hope everyone is doing fine & safe in this period of COVID-19. Today we are going to see We have presented the chart for USDINR in four hours’ time frame. Here we see a breakdown directly from 75.40 crossing 75.00 levels and hitting 74.63 which is at 4 months low since February before Coronavirus Lockdown of the country. This event happened due to the fundamental news coming from the pharma company like Pfizer and a German biotech medicine manufacturer announcing the success of 1st round of human trials and entering 2nd round of their trials which has shown positive signs in Covid19 vaccine development. Also an Indian company Bharat Biotech International Limited (BBIL) in a collaborative effort with the ICMR- National Institute of Virology, Pune India jointly working has announced entering the human trials of the Covid-19 vaccines and envisaged to launch the vaccine for public health use latest by 15th August 2020. 



Earlier, there was a Strong Support at 75.40 and 75.00 level.  Now today everybody wants to know that whether it will fall down below 74.60 more in the coming days or dollar will climb to reach the resistance line of 75.00 and 75.50 subsequently. You can see the earlier support line of S1 & S2 given in the technical chart. 
Now, let’s revisit the technical chart again. So you can see that jig-jag pattern at the bottom. It is holding right now at 74.60 around and you can see that the candles which are becoming smaller & smaller giving an indication of price rejection below 74.60. We can expect a turnaround here and probably it will be trying to move higher very soon. Also let's find out with the help of a few other technical parameters like Bollinger band (BB), RSI and STOCH RSI, etc. You can see the RSI is around 32 now.  The STOICH RSI has touched almost to the zero and probably it will try to go upside again sooner.



Now, in the monthly chart, you can find out that it has already formed the double-sided wicks in the candles and the candle has become red after 6-7 months period.
Talking about the fundamental event going on between Indian and china border. Yesterday on 3rd July India’s Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi has a surprise visit to Leh-Ladakh border to pay solidarity to the ‘Jawans’. There is a recently increased tension between China & India and various steps being taken by the Indian government like banning 59 digital Apps in India from giving service and in another effort curbing the import of electrical goods from china which is around 71000 crore yearly. In future times, the war of words acts like trade-bans and stricter import duties are going to put more pressure on rupees shortly. In effect of this, the dollar will jump back to 75+ level and 76 also cannot be ruled out. However not sure but still, the technical indicators in-depth analysis shows that it must see an upside in short term. But note that crossing 76+ there is a pressure on the dollar and in the coming months we can see a good downside below 74.00 as per the other monthly parameter.
I hope we have been able to throw some light on the dollar future forecast and when you should be doing bookings of your remittances and forward contracts. Keep visiting, we will be coming with EURINR and GBPINR future forecasts soon.

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Location: India

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